India’s key stock indices marked the beginning of the Hindu financial year Vikram Samvat 2082 on a positive note, closing higher for the fifth straight session following the special one-hour “Muhurat” trading on Tuesday.
The Nifty 50 closed at 25,868.60, up 25.45 points or 0.1 %, while the BSE Sensex ended at 84,426.34, gaining 62.97 points or 0.1 %. Both indices lifted about 3 % over the past week.
Market experts say the new Samvat year could deliver double-digit returns, supported by factors such as ample liquidity, strong consumption growth and hopes of resolution in tariff-related trade issues.
Key drivers and outlook
A. Balasubramanian, Managing Director & Chief Executive of Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC, expects returns in the region of 10-12 % from Diwali to Diwali – a marked improvement over the muted gains of Samvat 2081. He noted that a favourable outcome in tariffs and trade negotiations, especially with the United States, could serve as an important catalyst.
Additionally, analysts point to the buildup of short positions by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) – making a short-covering rally a possibility in the near term.
On the domestic front, expectations of credit growth following interest-rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India and a consumption revival are fuelling optimism. A robust monsoon and improved rural demand are also seen as supportive for sectors such as FMCG, automobiles and consumer durables.
Market breadth & sectoral performance
During Tuesday’s Muhurat session the mid-cap index (Nifty Midcap 150) rose 0.2 % while the small-cap index (Nifty Smallcap 250) gained 0.7 %. On the BSE, out of 4,178 stocks traded, 3,023 advanced and 954 declined. Among notable gainers, Cipla surged 1.6 %, Bajaj Finserv added 1.2 %, and shares of Infosys, JSW Steel and Grasim Industries all rose about 0.7 %.
Risks and what lies ahead
While the near-term tone is upbeat, analysts caution that the market’s performance for Samvat 2082 may still face headwinds. Key risks include an extended impasse in trade or tariff negotiations, slower-than-expected corporate earnings, and global liquidity tightening. The consensus view is that while the first half of the year might be gradual, a stronger second half could drive broader gains.
Foreign investors have already shown signs of returning – overseas investors bought shares worth ₹2,176.4 crore in October after months of heavy net selling. If trade uncertainty eases and earnings recover, the stage could be set for meaningful FII inflows.
Bottom line
As the Indian equity market ushers in Samvat 2082, the combination of favourable macro drivers, improved investor sentiment and policy tailwinds is raising hopes of a meaningful turnaround after the lacklustre previous year. For investors, the focus will be on earnings momentum, trade-deal breakthroughs and liquidity trends as the year unfolds.
