Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) saw a modest 1.8% lift in its stock price after CEO Dave Calhoun’s presentation at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference. The upbeat tone of the event and continued focus on operational improvements appeared to reassure investors, pushing shares to $207.13.
Mixed Analyst Forecasts: Modest Upside with Caution
According to projections from 23 Wall Street analysts, Boeing’s one-year price target averages $213.40—representing just a 3.03% upside from the current level. The most optimistic forecast values the stock at $256.24, while the lowest estimate dips to $140.00, signaling caution over macro and company-specific headwinds.
Meanwhile, the consensus rating from 29 brokerages remains at 2.1, which corresponds to an “Outperform” recommendation. This suggests analysts believe Boeing is better positioned than many of its peers, though not without notable risk.
However, GuruFocus’ valuation model paints a different picture. Its proprietary GF Value places Boeing’s fair value closer to $185.73, implying a 10.33% downside from current levels. This discrepancy highlights ongoing uncertainty about the company’s future cash flow and long-term profitability.
Q1 2025 Earnings Recap: Revenue Up, But Losses Persist
In its latest quarterly results released on April 23, Boeing posted an 18% year-over-year revenue increase, reaching $19.5 billion—largely fueled by a surge in commercial airplane deliveries. Yet despite top-line growth, the company continues to struggle with profitability.
- Core loss per share came in at $0.49, though that was a meaningful improvement from the prior year.
- Free cash flow usage totaled $2.3 billion, reflecting increased activity but also ongoing costs tied to production scaling and working capital.
Key Segment Highlights:
- Commercial Airplanes (BCA): $8.1 billion in revenue; 130 aircraft delivered; operating margin of -6.6%.
- Defense, Space & Security (BDS): $6.3 billion in revenue, down 9%; margin improved to 2.5%.
- Global Services (BGS): Stable at $5.1 billion in revenue; operating margin up to 18.6%.
Boeing ended the quarter with $23.7 billion in cash and marketable securities, and a total debt balance of $53.6 billion, down slightly from the previous quarter.
Tailwinds: Higher Deliveries, Defense Wins, and 737 MAX Production Plans
Despite its challenges, Boeing has made meaningful progress in several areas:
- 130 aircraft delivered in Q1, beating internal projections.
- Backlog rose to $460 billion, up $25 billion sequentially.
- The company won the F-47 program, solidifying its role in the next generation of military aircraft.
- Production of the 737 MAX is ramping up to 38 per month, with a target of 42 in the near term.
- The 100th 767 freighter conversion was completed—a notable milestone for Boeing’s aftermarket services division.
Headwinds: China Tariffs, Free Cash Flow Pressure, and Certification Hurdles
Still, Boeing faces several ongoing risks:
- Tariffs and geopolitical tensions may complicate deliveries to China.
- Certification delays are still affecting 787 Dreamliner deliveries.
- Input costs and retaliatory tariffs could create headwinds in key international markets.
- While improved, Boeing’s cash burn remains a concern for investors keeping an eye on its debt load.
Final Take
While Boeing’s stock is seeing short-term gains on renewed investor optimism and strategic progress, valuation models and cash flow issues continue to cast a shadow over its long-term prospects. Analysts appear cautiously optimistic, but the mix of global risks and internal execution challenges means the path to full recovery is still under construction.
